Friday , August 19 2022

Many regions are exposed to hot, dry weather at the same time – ScienceDaily



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A recent study by Stanford University suggests that the hot and dry environment, which also helps to reduce food yields, destroys food prices, as well as a fire extinguishing fire, will hit many regions simultaneously as a result of the warming climate.

According to researchers, climate change has doubled in the middle of the 20th century, assuming that the region, which is warm and dry, is one year old than in the middle of the region. In the same year, dry and severe weather conditions will likely affect key agricultural zones, which will make it difficult for some of the country's surplus to reach low productivity.

"When we look at historical data in the main crops and pasture zones, we see that before any human anthropogenic climate change, any two regions are at the same time really in dire straits," says Climatist Noh Diffenbaum, founder of Stanford's Earth, Energy and Ecology School Stanford Earth, and senior author of the study published on November 28. Scientific achievements. The study is called "multidimensional risk in non-stationary climate: joint probability of increased heat and dryness".

"There is a hedge against localized extremisms in the global market, but we see the erosion of the climate buffer because it's overwhelmed by global warming," said Diffenbaug, a Kimmellman Family Officer at Stanford Woods Institute. for the environment.

The new study points to a threat to a decline in crop yields in several regions simultaneously. The reason is that when some crops grow during the hot season, others grow, especially when the temperature rises, and begins to mature, gradually drying up and warming overnight. As a result, hot droughts will produce major foodstuffs such as wheat, rice, corn and soybeans.

There are also consequences for non-agriculture. These hot, dry conditions also increase the risk of fire, burn the plants in summer and autumn, and burn about 240 thousand hectares of land in California in November 2018.

Target Move

The main trend of global warming – intuitive logic of the main results of the research – from the end of the 19th century to 1 degrees Celsius or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit. "If it is warm everywhere, it may be hot in two places at the same time," explained Diffenbaug, "and it can be hot when it's dry in two places at once.

However, although there is a simpler intuition, stable, interdependent changes in rainfall and temperature in different places represent a statistical task, taking into account time. As a result, many past analyzes have looked at warm and dry areas in different regions, either as an independent phenomenon or independent of each other.

This approach can reduce the risk of global warming as well as social, environmental and economic empowerment. According to Dr. Ali Sarkhadi, author and doctor of the Diffenbaug Climate and Earth Systems Dynamics Group in Stanford, "these extremes simultaneously complicate the negative effects, even if they occur for some reason."

Disadvantages are normal

The new study, using historical data of the last century, allowed quantitative assessment of the possibility of hot and dry weather in different regions in the same year. The analysis shows that until 1980, two pairs of the two regions were subjected to very high temperatures less than 5% during one year in two areas. However, over the past two decades, some regional couples have grown up to 20 percent.

For example, China and India – both of the largest agricultural producers in the world and two of the two largest peoples, have less than 5% by the year 1980, unlike the annual precipitation and warmer temperatures. 15 percent today, said Diffenbaum. "Thus, the rare case may arise from some legality and we have strong arguments that are the cause of global warming."

Apart from historical data analysis, the authors analyzed the climate model hypothesis of potential future global warming scenarios. They have been discovered for several decades that if the world continues its current emission trajectory, average temperatures may rise above 75% in many regions, while average temperatures in the middle of the 20 th century.

However, achieving the goals set out in the United Nations climate treaty in Paris can seriously undermine these risks, Sarkadi said. While White House intends to withdraw from the United States, research achieving the goal of emission reduction in a 200-country agreement will allow the world to sharply reduce the dry, dry, dry conditions of many arable land worldwide. "There are other options to simplify these changes," he said.

Real risk planning

The basis for this study is an important step towards reducing the danger in a region due to several climatic threats, often linking one to another. For example, high temperatures, high winds and low humidity have allowed mega fire in the past, and how has it changed as a result of global warming? The structure of this team is a question that can be answered. It is important for these officials to take account of the historic scale and intense firefighting in California.

"Many events occur when many ingredients combine the infrastructure and our disaster response and response systems," Diffenbaum said. High storm and wind speeds can be flooded with storm and hurricane may cause tropical cyclone differences; The wind patterns and moisture levels in different parts of the atmosphere depend on the severity of flares and the risk of floods.

The key to the decision-maker is to understand what is going to change in the changing climate. This means understanding engineers, policy makers, humanitarian aid providers, and insurers, sharing resources, building codes, computing based on calculations using evacuation plans and other disasters.

"People make practical decisions based on the likelihood of different situations," said Diffenbaum. "By default, historical probability should be used, but our research suggests that historical probabilities will continue in the future will not accurately reflect current or future risks."

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