Friday , May 14 2021

Also in December Several weeks later …



The exchange pressure returned to Buenos Aires. The dollar rose by 35 cents yesterday to 39,16 pesos. Over the past 2 days, he has risen above 54 cents and exceeded 95 cents on December 3. Central Bank President Guido Sandleris can not lower interest rates by 59 percent. After all, the banks have stopped updating Leliq and since the middle of last week has raised $ 122 billion. He asked more questions than the peso. The international financial climate has helped reduce the exchange rate. Shares in the world have fallen sharply. The bonds in Argentine foreign currency have dropped again, and the country's risks have been recovering (see individually).

The dollar has shown an increase in recent volatility. Yesterday the wholesale trade rate was 38.17 pesos, up 34 cents. About $ 630 million was spent, and at the end of the day there was an increase in purchasing pressure in the market. In the futures markets, the $ 1165 million equivalent was agreed, of which 70 percent were agreed in December and January. Quotes were 39,07 and 40,90 pesos, respectively. The monetary organ Lelike had 125,132 million pesos, the average rate was 59,08 percent and the maximum was 38,16 percent. International reserves dropped by 40 million to 49,882.

The center is in the center. You can not reduce the interest rate (turnover pioneer) in order to prevent loss of Leliq's stock. The problem is that high interest rates will trigger the future obligations of the entity. Guido Sandleris is responsible for approximately $ 34 billion per month. Peso pays. These intersections. If you lower your bets, banks will not renew Leliq and produce leprosy. If it does not diminish it, future commitments will be made with very high interest payments, which will be paid sooner rather than later, to avoid damages to Lelgia.

On the market, they are worried about the money laundering, and the anti-money laundering programs that are facing the problem can not be successful. The difference between the nominal interest rate of 60% per year and the 30% inflation expectations in the next year will allow us to see the intolerance of the economy in an intuitive way. Because the Central Bank reviews such high interest rates (about 30 percent), the consequences for the domestic market are very important. The main thing is to lower the activity: the actual interest rates apply to consumer loans and investments.

Insufficient stability of the monetary program is one of the key elements of the dollar volatility. The reliability of the investor is broken and short-term bills are managed. Currently, the exchange rate has approached the ceiling to the exchange rate floor. On the one hand, this is due to the manipulation of economic equipment in future markets. But analysts in the city do not rule out new flights in the coming months.

A new trend of currency instability may be related to political and economic factors. Next year, the election process can trigger a strong leap in dollarization of assets. During the election years investors are prone to buying foreign currencies, which is augmented when the results of the competition are not known. The expectation of the economy is another point in the dollarization process. Investors point out that in the coming months the domestic market will stop and inflation will be on top of the last three decades. It will have a negative impact on the credibility and trustworthiness of investors and will help buy foreign currency.


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