The data on inflation in November (3.2%) have been revealed, which is higher than expected and now it is possible to improve the inflation brand in DecemberSeveral economists have warned of this changeThe price index will be less than 3%.
At present the Central Bank's Review of Market Expectations (REM) estimates that inflation is lower than in November and they rated it 2.7%.
This is a possible decline in inflation, which removes the margin of interest for customers' pockets – the Central Bank, which cuts interest rates, which in turn will produce other sectors, such as SMEs, economists.
In principle, low inflation expectations, There are several factors that may lead to price increases in December. Already linked to the planned growth taxi, underground, prepaid and mobile phones. However, price increases are not expected in regulated services, for example. And, of course, there is a significant decline in fuel prices.
On the other hand, traders can not increase their goods too much, as the wage cuts after devaluation are not in high demand, "says economist Marto Votier.
For LCG consultant, "December inflation can be replaced less than 3% per month, he warned in his latest report.
"In annual comparison, inflation will accelerate in March before the ceiling, but we will say that, in the first place, the monetary program, which provides substantial reconciliation, and the rewards for months to recover the margin, even price drops, slower slowdown (with new adjustments on wages and wage pressure for the reconstruction of the lost land).
"In December, the rate of inflation is 2.5%, they say. "This floor is based on pre-paid medicine (8.5%), transport (subway) and seasonal growth due to the end of the year. Thus, according to our forecasts, the annual inflation rate will be over 48% ".
In their turn, they joined the consultant: "In the following months, such as very limited money, as in the following months inflation from 2.5% to 3% due to strong inflationary inertia of food and water (by 17% in January) and underground (by 1 dollar per month). Although inflation is expected to slow down in the coming months due to the relative stability of the exchange rate, they are far from stabilization at the level of 23% approved by the 2019 federal budget law.
According to the experts of Ecolatina, "correction of relative prices in the upcoming months will be an inflationary factor because the rest of the population is behind the nominal lags and hopes to restore the lost land (demand). Therefore, even when the exchange rate is maintained, inflation is maintained at a high level, in which case, for inertial reasons, the ".
"In this context, we value that the prices for the last month of the year will reach 3% has increased by about 48% by 2018 compared to inflation. Thus, in December 2018 (the beginning of exchange turbulence) may be the first month where the price fluctuation is lower than the corresponding month of 2017 (+ 3.1%).