In Argentina, financial vulnerability is rising when deteriorating in the international context. Hopeless forecasts for the global economy, for example, in December Wall Street will be negative in 2018 and both The local exchange market as a exchange market condemned the coup After a year, he was driving the red numbers in full.
There is a five-day benchmark that will allow quantitative estimation of the economic downturn in 2018, giving clear signal about the deterioration of Argentine assets prices, which can lead to the worst crisis in 2009.
1) country risk. Above 700 base pointsThis represents the measure that measures the differentials of debt rates on US Treasury bonds Argentina will not be able to finance its social deficit Without the help of the International Monetary Fund.
Today the yield of 10-year US bonds is 2.89% (289 basis points) per year. Argentina should reduce its country risk by 300 basis points, a reduction of its sovereign emission rates to 6% per annum, a high return on other economies, but comparable to future debt repayment.
Argentina has at least two years to achieve these goals, because of the agreement The IMF guarantees the payment of the debt by 2020. Country Risk the highest level in four years December 17, 2014 has set 800 units – uncertainty investors are reluctant to return to voluntary credit markets.
2) Marvel in dollars. Current Leader BYMA (Argentinian bags and markets) In 2018 he lost half of it when it is in dollars. Even in the cedar, even a year (+ 3.7%) did not appear inflation exceeds 45 percent.
At the end of 2017, the Marvel Panel was divided into 29,974 points at the exchange rate, or 1,607 dollars in Dollars. He is now around 815 points, After collecting 710 points on September 4.
With high inflation like Argentina, Marvel can only show the peso income by replicating the average price of the economy, feel restored up to in a successful currency and there is a constant volume of ever-growing business.
3) High tariffs. The currency exchange It is born in 2018 Decrease of the debt accumulated on the balance of the central bank, which led to the departure of two presidents over several months. The Argentine peso devalue "liquefied" this debt, Lebak's letters have been replaced by the Leliq Liquid absorber since October from 110 to 42% of international reserves at the end of April at the end of November.
However, it is record interest rates that include escalation USD. In early October they reached 73.5% of the pesos, and now they are behind Up to 59%, But they remain very high and deepens the economy. In this size BCRA's debt is growing and re-organization obligations this could be a threat has gained financial stability since the second quarter of the current year.
In the short term, high tariffs are effective, but they last for several months and they start to have an impact on the person they are looking for: Inflation expectations and devaluation. That's why it is important that benchmarks are approaching the expected inflation level in the short run.
4) The price of the dollar. The The highest inflation rate is 27 years it records the Argentine economy it is related to the exchange rateIf prices for goods and services increase, then both the dollar and the economy are good. Because of the value of the dollar as an important component of many commodity prices, the dollar's growth affects the rising cost of these goods on the domestic market.
In 2018, the dollar has gone up More than 100 percent, After a strong backlog in 2016 and 2017. Cumulative inflation after the government's forecast Mauricio Macri it was about 162%, and the dollar's growth was 181%, from $ 13.93, on average, on December 17, on average, to $ 39.19 a day
That is This year, the US dollar lost its interest in inflation this year and unexpectedly because of uncertainty about the evolution of the economy, exceeded by 20 percentage points. But that is different It is a mistake for the Government to repay the debt again to accelerate the reactivation during the election year, as the sharp jumps in these episodes eliminate expectations.
5) reservation. The international assets of the Central Bank are backup of all weights Issued by the Central Bank. The dollar provided by the IMF, when they enter it, quickly passes because they have the exclusive function of paying off and avoiding public debt default.
So it is necessary to return to Argentina forming dollars through specific actions, there is trade surplus of goods and services, so foreign exchange reserves are constantly growing and retaining plays an important role as a stabilizing factor for inflation and the dollar and provides the opportunity payment of debt in foreign currency.