The initial implication – the prolongation of the expected recession, which began in the beginning of the second quarter and before 2020, in a market consensus, even in agency estimates, which is expected to be prolonged. international
Expected rhythm of key indicators
REM in December indicated 2.7% of expected inflation, down by ten per cent below the October figure and dropping to 2.5 per cent in January; and in February and March – 2.3%
At the same time, the rate of growth of the Consumer Price Index compared to the previous year will be registered in November until next March, will be stored at over 48%, depending on the inertial effects, but where the bear rally is constantly projected.
The forecast for 2018 has been retained for the previous edition: a 2.4% decline; By 2019 it is expected to drop by 1.2% to 2% in October; and next year it will accelerate the reactivation by 2.5% in tenth.
Given the expected slowdown in the inflation rate, the determining factor of the planned turnaround rhythm is the expected stable rate of interest rate defining the monetary policy, which is Lelik's daily 7-day period.
The annual monetary policy rate for December was reduced by 500 basis points, from 65% in the previous survey to 60%; and the forecast for the current month was reduced to 58.9% annually.
It would be a clear sign of confidence in the stability of the new monetary policy scheme, zero expansion of the volume of money and the initial budget deficit, which returned to opt for the REM consensus forecast based on the 2019 balanced outcome.
Yesterday, with Enrique Christophe, the president of the bank, Santander Rio, at an annual meeting for journalists, Infobae: «The government will allow the decision to bet on a competitive and floating exchange rate, an initial fiscal balance and a zero-emission monetary policy to recover economic growth in 2019.