After 2018, the peso devaluation, Inflation has dropped by almost 48%, and the recession has become almost all of the events, and the main problem is how the economy begins at the start of the new year. According to the official budget forecast, GDP is expected to decline by 0.5% by 2019.
In this context, experts predict the "complicated" and "sophisticated" first quarter because the international transformation of the action will continue to decline, indicating that there are a lot of cases in 2018. Anyway, starting in the second quarter, recovery has been slow in some areas of activity and improved wages. The key issue is the exchange rate stability, interest rates and country risk, which implies significant financial stress on the current level.
One of the priorities of the 2019 economic agenda is that the Central Bank will reduce the interest rate without saving the US dollar, "says Federico Furias, an economist at EcoGo Consulting. "It is also necessary to counteract inflation by increasing wages. Today, political uncertainty appears to be complicated in a context that threatens the country, "he said.
Country risk, variables that control the work of Argentine bonds overseas, "leave the Central Bank without speed to lower interest rates. It is difficult to increase the loan, which in turn will have to co-finance the companies, "he said. In short, the analyst believes that in a short time "gradual recovery of real wages, the most unstable credit and some unemployed companies".
Economist Lorenzo Sigut The first question for Gravina is how the exchange rate will continue to calm down. "There are more than 800 threats in the country, and it is clear that Argentina will not be able to finance it. Even if the country meets the requirements of the IMF, the payment will be available in 2019, and by mid-2020 it will have to settle the debt, "he explained. "This is financial uncertainty," he says.
On the other hand, "Since there was an official opening of parishes in April, we managed to recover some segments and get a favorable first semester. In April next year, unemployment adjustments automatically adjusted for retirement.
Agricultural crops, especially after the drought, will benefit the emerging economy of corn and soybeans, says Sigat Gravina. At the same time, there are areas of trade, such as agriculture, mining, oil and gas, with the highest exchange rates. Probably, some industries, such as a car, will be able to export more. "
According to Econometrics, Ramire Castinaire, in 2019, the "ironing" of the crisis begins with "sex." "It is still difficult" in the first quarter of the year, except for tourism, which is the sole candidate for restoration. Only in the second quarter, it would be possible to collect crops and resume the service.
Fawsto Sprintno, a Ferreres & Asociados studio economist, is considered complicated in the first quarter of 2019. "Except for tourism, there is no change in the economy that is too high. But in the second quarter, there will be optimistic data available from the agricultural sector, which will have a rapid growth and some industrial sectors, "he said.
On the side of inflation, which is 48% this year, economists agree that the next year will be low. In fact, according to the Central Bank analysts, by 2019 the price index (CPI) will grow by 27.5%.