Saturday , June 3 2023

The second recession in the Makry era: the decline in September was 5.8%


Buenos Aires Economic activity dropped 5.8% in September, dropping sharply in the trading and manufacturing industries and forming a second recession cycle in the government of Mauritius Macri.

The National Institute of Statistics and Statistics (INECEK) reported yesterday that the EMAe decreased by 5.8% compared to the same month in 2017. It illustrates a significant scenario of data consumption and product sectors.

The second largest drop in the year was the worst – 6.8%. In this regard, the red color was explained by the deep depression of the rural sector after the historical drought.

But this time it is not the climate, it is the direct consequence of the paralyzing economy, which is not the rural, but also the most productive sectors of the productive sector, trying to finance themselves and live at an extraordinary rate of interest to satisfy the economy. reduction in purchasing power.

This September is confirmed by official data that the most affected sectors are wholesale, retail and repair (-12.8%), manufacturing (-10.8%), net taxes on subsidies – 10.1%), transport and communication (-4.6%), hotels and restaurants (-4.2%).

On the contrary, agglomerates of agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry accounted for 2.2%, and good productivity fishing (2.8%) and financial intermediation (2.7%).

"The elimination of the negative effects of drought, economic downturn corresponds to two factors: the increase in exchange rate and inflation acceleration. Reduction in purchasing power in US dollars and pesos has reduced the demand for long-term goods and consumption, which has reduced the production of companies funds Depressive sales are high, "added the consultant.

The private diagnosis "uncertainty about other elements, especially in September, sudden movement of the exchange rate and the expectation of a new agreement with the IMF have paralyzed the decision-making of economic agents".

Red concentration in September for the sixth month following a fall in economic activity: in April it dropped by 0.5%; 5.2% in May; June – 6.8%; in July – 2.7%, in August – 1.9%. The two-part red color is the basis for the technical publication of the crisis.

This is the second deficit of the Macrian economy. The previous event took place in 2016. This drop started in March and lasted 9 months, the number of accidents reached 4.9 percent.

At present, 1.5% of economic activity declines and individual forecasts have a lot more redness. Even official victories show that the crisis will continue until the first quarter of next year.

Economist Florer Dorornore, an economist at the Center for Economic Research, says the economic downturn in October may be lower than in September, but predicts that economic activity will fall again in October.

"Maybe we have a low boiler, but in November and December there are not many. And at the beginning of March, when harvesting begins, economic activity can be restored, "says Spotorno and irony:" Whether it is raining in the 21st century or not? "

The dollar was extinguished in one day

This is the most serious daily riot since September.

The currency jumped at $ 1,07 (2.8%) compared to the end of Thursday, at $ 36.56 for sale and $ 38.50 for retail sales. The advance was surprising, because in the operators' opinion, it was the highest daily growth since the end of September.

In the wholesale trade with banks and large companies, the dollar received 1.10 cents this Friday and reached 37.6 US dollars.

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The original text of this article was published in our newsletter on 24/24/2018.

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