Saturday , January 28 2023

Karcarelli, head of the IMF mission: "In the second quarter of 2019, the recovery will begin"


This Saturday's heavy rains in Buenos Aires Tomorrow Argentina's head of the mission in Argentina Roberto Carcarelli, Permanent Representative to Argentina Jamaica Trevor Allen, They met with a group of journalists participating in

Interview The Argentinean Authority was pleased to announce the satisfaction of its mission on the implementation of a new program with IMF: "We are very grateful for the recent events in terms of stability in the financial market"said Kararelli.

The decline of the Central Bank, interest rates, some issues of the Central Bank's activities were discussed.

Even football, Italian and classic Boca and rivers have also been a part of the dialogue. Whether Kararelli wanted to know how to do his team on Sunday for Lazio, Allein Kopa asked Libertadores the best way to share the game.

Then, the most important aspects of the conversation.

"New Monetary Policy Results are Good"he said Roberto Caroline, An Italian economist of the International Monetary Fund, responsible for auditing accounts in Argentina. When he approved the government's program, he supported it "We are very grateful for the latest developments in terms of stability in the financial market". Fundamentals of new monetary policy "They work to stabilize the cost of the peso."

Kararelli predicted that the current quarter would be "worst." At the moment of consultation, Acknowledged that there are "many risks" He hopes for a steady recovery of the Argentinean economy in the second quarter of the next year.

The head of the IMF mission recently said "We know what the new program is for (peso). He acknowledged that the Central Bank "has a very limited monetary policy," but he does "We have opened a way to lower inflationary expectations in line with the Central Bank's latest surveys."

He also noted that the budget of the parliamentarians has been fiscally sanctioned. And he said that "We are waiting for the Senate's approval, and then there will be a problem with achieving the goals set in the budget."

Official representative of a multilateral organization before consulting journalists at a hotel in the city center "We pay great attention to economic activity, which is important for us and the Argentinean government."

From his presentation, national authorities decided that he was working with the Fund "I do not see a lot of controversial issues." This is a question for Carousel "It is expected that expectations will increase in the coming week and will continue to wait."

He also claimed responsibility for the Argentinean government "If the current monetary policy is more accessible to the Central Bank, then inflation will be the cornerstone of inflation."

In this connection, in accordance with the agreement with the Fund, "If the exchange rate policy is too limited, you can see that the exchange rate is highly valued, and the government has the ability to buy and buy dollars (dollars) in the pound to relax the monetary policy."

Instead, the exchange rate "It is depreciated, indicating that the monetary policy is too slow and the power has the potential to restrict it by selling dollars and reducing the pesos in the economy", Carollie explained.

So he finished it "Both in the above and below the assessment of adequate monetary-credit policy and defense rules", but noted that "the Central Bank should make a decision".

• Short dropping

Kararelli answered the question of economic activity decline "Of course, we are concerned: the current fiscal and monetary policy is macroeconomic stabilization and value."

But he said this "We expect that the recession will not last for two, three quarters, and in the second quarter of the next year we will see the recovery of the business, restore the field and reduce the rate, as the inflation is diminished and the impact of faith."

Italian Roberto Carcarelli and Permanent Representative to the Country, Jamaica Trevor Allen.

He predicts that the competitive exchange rate and the share of the agro-industrial sector are "a significant increase in net exports". But he admitted it "Question – How long we have to wait for domestic demand".

In addition to the downturn in the coming months, Kararelli has told the Argentinean authorities and the Fund "We hope to become a floor in the first quarter of the next year and will be restored in the second quarter,

He believes that "the fourth quarter will be worse", but predicts next year's economic development "In the first quarter, inflation begins to decline and there is interest rate."

When you consult about inflation decline, Kararlelli just answered "gradually".

The official representative of the IMF gave detailed information about the creation of the Argentinean dollar. In the rest of the year, Kararelli rated that "Dollars planned to be given to us will be used to meet foreign currency requirements" as they currently have enough resources for the peso to meet the Government's needs in the national currency.

Instead, "next year, they need more pesos, and then they will have the need to turn the dollar into a pesos." And he explained it "It can be done in two ways (not three): firstly, the dollar can be sold as in July, and the second is the sale of dollars to the Central Bank".

He said: "If they sell the dollar to the Central Bank and buy a peso, they should sterilize it to reduce the effect of the monetary base, and the authorities want to avoid sterilization, so they decided to sell it directly to the market".

In any case, he explained this by explaining that the authorities "have the opportunity to sell to the market or to the Central Bank" "We have not discussed this issue because we do not have to discuss it, and when we see the need to turn the dollar into a peso, we will discuss it."

• Uncertainty

When asked about the impact of the election year and the fear of investors coming back to populism Carelles in the forecasts provided by the Argentinean program "We will start restoring in the second quarter and continue in the third and fourth quarters, and continue, of course, there are risks."

Among these risks I will tell you in detail "Inflation will not diminish rapidly in the future, and then there is a risk of strikes in emerging markets (Indonesia, Turkey), politics in the US …"

And this is also proved "The uncertainties associated with the political cycle can create a turbulent situation since the second or third quarter, which is risk, but the main scenario is that it is not so strong to stop the recovery process. crystal ball «, – said the official representative.

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