Wednesday , June 23 2021

Ye Bingnan: Commercial real estate sales will be significantly reduced in 2019, real estate will run at the lowest low cycle – Economic Observer Online – Professional Financial News website



(Eyes: Panoramic view)

Vu Peyyan, an online economic observer on the Internet "In 2018, there was a signal to increase funding for the outbreak, and the previous boom cycle reduced the demand for the overdraft and the private sector, and the third and fourth levels of the real estate market appear during the round of correction cycles." Yé Bingnan, a macroeconomic officer at the hospital.

In his recent report, he predicts that in 2019, he will significantly reduce the commercial space sales space, the growth rate of investment in real estate development will slow down, the real estate policy will not relax, and the real estate market will start at its lowest low cycle.

Over the past decade, China's real estate market has experienced a three-round decline, and most importantly, during the 2008 global financial crisis. Many housing prices dropped directly to 20%, sales declined and prices did not rise, and real estate played an important role in GDP. From 1.15 percent in 2007 to 0.05 percentage points in 2008.

Thanks to the renovation of the boat, the low cycle started in 2017, but there was no sign of recovery.

The transformation of the Bingnan Shanty Mountains has played an important role in maintaining a growing cycle of housing, third and fourth levels of monopolization, on the one hand, reducing the supply of housing and on the other hand, the demand for new housing has changed in some cities in the short term . Communication between supply and demand hinders growth in home prices over a short period of time, which increases and strengthens potential demand and speculative demand for market access.

According to E Bingmann, scandalous reform could contribute more than 15% to real estate development, but this will increase housing prices in some cities and fraudulent government debt.

Funding for the reform of the military reform to monitor the risk of housing price devel- opment and the expansion of the hidden debt of local authorities has shown that funding from Bing may be much shorter than the previous two rounds.

"The first two rounds of the lower cycle have become a free stimulus cycle after one year, and the lower cycle has been going on for more than a year, significant relaxation of politics leads to real estate growth, and will continue in 2019. "said Bingnan.


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