On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published an annual analysis of global energy markets, the World Energy Outlook. The complex analysis shows how to achieve different scenarios and the goal of reducing climate change.
It is reflected in the reference analyzes of the energy resources market. CO2the volume of emissions will increase by 2017, and by 2018 these figures will increase. And the next few decades will not be good to believe in the IEA.
The most likely scenario of the agency is that in 2040, CO emissions in the world are high2 present day.
"What kind of scientific knowledge should be used to counteract climate change," a statement reads.
There should be three times in the United States
Although IEA warns against climate change, the agency is afraid of the lack of available oil in the market. Demand for oil, along with a decline in investment in high-grade oil refineries, causes the IEA's fear of very small oil market. By 2025, the IEA will be financed by US $ 7.5 million. Expects the demand for barrels to grow. At the same time, the existing fields are approximately 14.5 million tons. The barrel has dropped to 22 million tons. The difference between demand and demand exceeds the barrel, which should be supplemented with new projects to balance demand and supply.
According to the IEA, these new projects will add nine million barrels to the market during this period. 13 million Barrel's shortage is fraught with the lack of oil and heavy prices.
– The demand or supply price needs to be changed to cover the difference, but the longer the imbalance is, the higher the risk of price loss and price increases, the IEA report believes.
If the investment in ordinary projects does not increase rapidly, oil production in the United States should triple by 2025.
"One-third of the American slate oil would be a threat to today's level," the IEA writes.
More than $ 100
Nordea energy analyst Tina Saltett is afraid of sharp drop in oil prices.
– Investment caps from 2014 to 2016 will start in the next few years. It has invested very little to satisfy the demand growth. Demand growth will expire at the end of next decade. Many people invest in and soon will be able to work in the market. Saltvedt says the worst oil price will be over $ 100.
Saltvedt and IEA are afraid of the market, and the price of oil drops. On Tuesday afternoon, North Sea oil was sold at $ 69 per barrel, down from $ 17 per barrel on October 3. Thina Saltvedt believes that political tension between Saudi Arabia and the United States after the death of journalist Jamal Hashoggi is one of the reasons for a slowdown in oil prices in the short run. In addition, US crude oil production is higher than expected.
The rise in oil prices is also in the green direction
This is the most likely scenario called the New Policy Scenario, and IEA estimates the world's shortage of oil shortages by 2025.
The IEA will work in the future through three possible ways:
- The current policy scenario believes that today's policy is ongoing.
- New policy scenario suggests that today's political plans are being developed and the existing technology is being developed.
- Sustainability scenario Based on the climatic goals and satisfaction of the Paris Convention.
In the new policy scenario, IEA expects 106 million barrels of oil demand in 2040. Today, it is ten percent higher than today's demand. Growth of this demand is driven by the fact that the IEA is expected to see a sharp rise in electric vehicles by 2040. In 2040 about 300 million electric cars will be on the road. The whole car fleet is about two billion cars.
In the scenario of sustainable development, there is a scenario of stability development, which IEA expects to reduce demand for oil. In this scenario, the IEA expects the demand for oil to be high by 2020.
By 2040, the IEA's expectation scenario would require 70 million barrels per day. This is 26% lower than in today's world. In a sustained scenario, the IEA will be about $ 74 in 2025, with more than five dollars per night compared to what oil is trading at night. In the IEA scenario, the price of oil in 2040 will be about $ 64 per barrel.
(Conditions)Copyright Dagens Næringsliv AS and / or our suppliers. We want you to share your business interactions with them directly on our sites. Any part or all of the content may be copied or otherwise used in writing or by any other means. See additional terms and conditions here.