Monday , June 14 2021

In the third quarter, Japan's economic contracts, the resumption of trading clouds in trade

TOKYO: The Japanese economy is worried that the third quarter will be much less affected than natural disasters and exports, and trade protectionism will begin to pay for foreign demand.

Reduction of the third largest economy in the world increases the signs of weakness throughout the world, losing momentum in China and Europe. Germany's economy has declined in the last quarter.

The government believes that the economy has continued to recover normally, accusing the typhoon reductions and plants and accusing the earthquake that stopped consumption.

But some analysts have said that such lone factors can not explain the recession just by showing China anxiety over exporting the Chinese demand and damping global trade.

"Reducing export is not entirely natural disasters," says Hiraki Moto, economist at Tokyo's Tokyo Research Center.

"The weakening of the Chinese economy, Japan's exports, will not recover, and will be the first half of the next year," he said.

The year-on-month decline was 1.2% lower than the average by 1.0%, and increased reliability by 3.0% in the previous quarter.

This decline was mainly due to a decrease in exports by 1.8 per cent, a major decline over three years. Capital expenditures, which grew by 3.1 percent in April-June, dropped by 0.2 percent for the first decline in two years.

According to experts, the growth of the current quarter may be weaker than expected at first, and the increase in trade disputes may increase in the next year.

"Japan's economy is weakening since the US-Chinese trade war has been advancing dynamically since January," said Masoki Kwahara, senior economist at Nomura Securities.

"US tariffs for imports of Chinese goods from China will come into force in January, which will restrict the Chinese supply, which will damage Japanese exports and capital expenditures," he said.


Increased foreign uncertainties increase the risk of headaches to Japanese politicians due to the anticipated impact of the planned sales tax rates next year.

Private consumption, which accounts for about 60 percent of GDP, has dropped by 0.1 percent in July-September, as consumers spend less on travel, housing and food.

The government may require more than 10 trillion yen ($ 88 billion) incentive package to compensate for the effects of the tax revenue, but politicians may expect further costs.

It connects politicians. Many analysts see a place for the Bank of Japan to block a huge incentive to bolster financial institutions.

Japan's largest debt burden within the developed countries limits the ability of the government to place a large-scale expenditure package.

"Monetary policy stretches so it is difficult to make additional simplified steps," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist, Takeshi Minami, "Fiscal measures are believed to be hit by a rise in trade tax. Norinchukin Research Institute.

"But you can not rule out the possibility of a large expense due to the degree of economic slowdown."

Japanese factories were quickly restored from natural disasters of the third quarter. Big concern among Japanese firms is trade between the United States and China, as Japan's car parts, electronics and heavy machinery are threatened.

According to the government announced last month, Japan's largest trading partner was exported to China, which fell in September for the first time in seven months.

"IT-exports in Asia has slowed down since the end of spring, so we have to take into account the effects of trading factors and the Chinese economy's growth can have a detrimental impact on Japan's economy," said Economy Minister Toshimitsu Moteghi, according to GDP figures.

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