November 15, 2018 01:15
Poor population, powerful product and heavy migration are the consequences of long-term hyperinflationary phenomena, and only a few of these effects are visible in Venezuela. Experts in the twenty-fifth edition of the Economic News Congress, analysts from the Economics School of the Catholic University of Economics, anticipate that in 2019, hyperinflation and economic degradation will be much worse.
According to economist Luc Oliveros, the panorama was visible and nobody tried to predict that hyperinflation would be postponed in a few months; on the contrary, for many years, at least for the next year. "Venezuela has all the ingredients, so hyperinflation is very long," he said.
If it is stored daily in August and September, it will be refunded until the 20th of August in the second week of June 2019; ie, 5 zeros from the government are converted into currency by conversion of money.
"Nicolas Maduro intends to be our world champion in hyperinflation. This region, first of all, has been around the world and can do much more when it collects the Marquee advisers in that room with the Ecuadorian dollarisers. «
The expected inflation of Uruguay in 2018 is 7.2%, and the only country apart from Argentine is one-year inflation in Venezuela. "It would take many years for Venezuela to have one month's inflation in the region," he said.
According to Datanalisis CEO Luis Vicente Leone, next year it will be economically strong, because there will be many companies that can endanger hyperinflation, and the product will be contracted.
"For Venezuela's inflation rate, it is not possible for Latin America to have the largest individual savings per capita. After 1983, we never believed in the preservation of the Bolivarians of Venezuelan people. According to him, 86% of Venezuelans think the country is "bad and very bad".
Negative diagnosis. The next few months, not only the experts' warnings, but also the deepening of the crisis. Economist Omar Zambrano assured him that he would face the most severe and lasting recession in his country's modern history, and the nation was blind because of the lack of official figures.
To illustrate the extent of the injury, Zambrano recalled that the poverty level in the poorest 10 churches in the country increased from 4.1% to 29.9% during the period 2012-2017. According to Anova Consultores, last year, there were 26.3 million poor people whose income was insufficient to buy a food basket. The cost of covering the poverty line is $ 15.3 billion a year.
In 2018, due to the rapid rise in prices, purchasing power has fallen. Oliver, despite a significant salary increase that came into force on 1 September, has reduced its ability to buy an integrated wage by 85% since January.
Henkel Garcia, a financial analyst and director of an econometric company, notes that people are poor, as their institution is not inclusive and therefore requires a process of refusal from authorities. "However, Venezuela has two traits, which explains why we are: we have the presidential and presidential power, the main wealth. The last straw can be re-selected by the president several times, as well as directly to the PDVSA owner.
The first speaker, UCAB's Rector, explained that his father, José Virtuozo, had shortened the crisis in Venezuela because it did not mean dramatic depth of Venezuelan drama. "The political pact, democracy, the production capacity and our ability to meet our needs, so the economic approach is radical," he said.
"Maduro intends to recognize us as the world's hyperinflationary champions. This region is, first of all, the rest of the world "
Problems, recommendations and suggestions
Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences of UCAB, economist Ronald Balzas, shared his suggestions and recommendations regarding the Economic News Congress, the transition period.
First of all, he noted that it contributed to the distribution of segments of the authoritarian government, the exercise and management of power, and the stabilization and institutionalization of developing democracy.
– He has some suggestions for the transitional period: gradual, progressive advancement; promotes understanding of interests, recognition of differences; offers optimistic and inclusive views; knowing how bad this is, and finding solutions and creating space for dialogue.
– Finally, he made the recommendations. Some of them were related to humanitarian assistance and social programs, such as beneficiaries' calculation of volumes of transfers to beneficiaries, distribution channels and geographical location. Taking into account the recommendations of the public sector budget, he believes that the money should be replaced by exchange rate adjustments and the removal of indirect subsidies.